Data journalism for the beautiful game. 48 teams, 104 matches, one tournament โ seen through an economics lens.
Time until the Final ยท MetLife Stadium ยท July 19
For the first time, 48 nations compete. The USA, Canada and Mexico co-host across 16 cities. A new format means the third-place route to the knockouts changes everything.
Methodology: Elo rating (40%) ยท Qualification xG differential (25%) ยท Squad age profile โ 24โ28 peak (20%) ยท Tournament experience of starting XI (15%)
Average goals per game across World Cup tournaments 1990โ2022
No #1 ranked team has won the World Cup since FIFA rankings became reliable in 2006. Every winner ranked between 2nd and 10th at tournament start โ suggesting the market consistently overvalues the top seed. With Argentina entering ranked #1, history is not on their side.
Four patterns that have held across multiple tournaments โ with reasoning behind each one.
The first 48-team World Cup uses 12 groups of four. The top two advance automatically, and the best eight third-place finishers also progress to the Round of 32.
The "best 8 third-place" rule fundamentally changes incentive structures. Teams in groups with two strong opponents are no longer eliminated โ they can still qualify through the back door. This reduces the pressure of the "group of death" and likely increases scoring as teams are less incentivised to play for draws.
Average FIFA rank of the four teams โ lower average = stronger group. A score under 25 signals an elite group; over 50 suggests a more accessible path.
Sort by any column. Click a header to rank teams. The highlighted row shows the leader for each metric.
| Team | FIFA Rank โ | Appearances | Titles | Win Rate % | Win Rate Bar | Confederation |
|---|
Not just the superstars โ data-driven picks from each group. Stat profiles based on international career data.
Three steps: pick your group stage finishes โ choose which 8 third-place teams qualify โ click through every knockout match to your champion.
Connecting to live dataโฆ
Everything you need for the tournament โ kits, streaming, travel, and more.